The Prudent Retiree - April 3rd, 2024
Polls over the past year have consistently shown that about 75% of Americans don’t want President Biden or former President Trump to be the next President. Too old, too corrupt. The polls don’t matter. Election 2024 will be Biden vs. Trump. No surprises, nothing new. Party primaries are controlled by the 25% of voters who want these guys. This election will truly be a race to the bottom and one where “None of the Above” might win easily if on the ballot.
What does this election mean for investors? Probably not much. Some are worried that if Biden is elected, the country and economy will collapse. Others are worried that if Trump is elected, the country and economy will collapse. The sun will come up on November 6 regardless of who wins. The economy will be fine. These two men have been President for the past seven plus years and the economy and markets have grown. Indeed, there have been rough patches - Covid, high inflation and increased interest rates. Stock prices have been volatile and there have been nasty declines during both Administrations. President Reagan remarked that facts can be stubborn. The truth is the market has increased during both Presidencies. Investors should not be partisan with their portfolios.
Our risk management model remains positive. We continue to look primarily to the Fed for what to expect. Inflation has moderated, but not to the Fed’s 2% target. Economic growth is positive and the job market is strong. The Fed has indicated interest rates are at the right level and the next change will most likely be down. All positive for stocks. Risks are always present and we’ll make changes if the market tells us to do so.
It will be the same old story until November. Politics is a bloodsport. Record amounts will be spent telling us why Trump and Biden are disasters waiting to happen. Remember those predicted market disasters haven’t happened while either man was President. Investors can make a grave mistake if they confuse their portfolios with their politics. The same old song and dance.
Aerosmith is a legendary rock and roll band still performing today. They were inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 2001. No doubt, you know at least one of their songs. 75% say we want someone else. There has been talk from activists in both parties that there could be an open convention and a different nominee. Biden might step down for health reasons. Trump might get convicted. All I can say is “Dream On”.
The Horseman Group – John, Bill, Renee and Dexter
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