The Prudent Retiree - November 17, 2023

All of us are feeling that what we are paying is too high. Food and gas prices are both up more that 60% in the last three years. My wife said a roll of Reynolds Wrap cost $11. My daughter was shocked that cereal cost $9 a box. The next line in the song is, “You’re living beyond all your means.” All this is a consequence of insidious inflation unlike any we’ve experienced in more than forty years. We can debate the causes – supply shortage caused by the pandemic, an overheated labor market caused by a shortage of workers or too much government spending. All are factors that have caused an abrupt jump in interest rates, a surging deficit and higher prices for everything. Most everyone is feeling the financial pain.

Traffic was formed in 1967 and played on and off for decades. They were enshrined in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 2004. Steve Winwood is the band’s most well known player who also had great success in other bands and as a solo performer. One of his memorable songs is “Can’t Find My Way Home.” That seems to be the fate of investors the past two years. High interest rates and Fed policy have caused a decline in stock prices. 2022 was off a cliff and though the market is up sharply from its low in October 2022, the S&P 500 has meandered in a trading range of 4100-4500 since this summer. How do investors find their way home in this environment?

Expect the percentage to remain too high for the foreseeable future. Expect the market to remain in a choppy trading range. We don’t believe we are looking at 2008. Inflation has abated from its peak, but the Fed still says it’s too high and interest rates will remain elevated. The Prudent Retiree will listen to the market to find our way home. We continue to maintain our same allocation and will wait for a reason to make a change. We’ve worked hard, as always, to minimize losses during these tough times. Forty years ago, most thought high inflation and interest rates would never end. They did and will again.

Have a joyous Thanksgiving. Even with all the turmoil in the world, we have much to be thankful for. This Thanksgiving, we are blessed with another person at the table, our new granddaughter, Margot Francis Ramos Horseman. Welcome Margot. No percentage is too high to pay for this blessing.

The Horseman Group – John, Bill, Renee and Dexter

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Horseman Group – 3 CityPlace Drive - Suite 290 – St. Louis, MO 63141 – 314.692.7842 – www.horsemangroup.com

Advisory Services offered through Horseman Group. Securities offered through AW Securities, a registered Broker/Dealer, member FINRA/SIPC.