The Prudent Retiree - What's Going On Part IX

John Lennon wrote a song on his last album with the lyrics, “Nobody told me there’d be days like these.” Think back to six weeks ago. We all went out to eat, attended sporting events, saw our grandkids, went to church, enjoyed live music and shook hands. That’s all gone. Nobody told me there’d be days like these.

Six weeks ago, the economy was booming. Unemployment was at a fifty year low. The stock market was at an all time high. Then the economy closed for business, the stock market fell by more than 30% in record time, businesses closed and laid off workers, unemployment is predicted to surpass that of the Great Depression, the Fed lowered interest rates to zero and Congress just passed the largest stimulus program ever. We all know about the ravages of the Coronavirus and the government’s order to stay home. Nobody told me there’d be days like these.  

The stock market has strongly rebounded from its low. Technically speaking, we’ve gone from a bear market to a bull market in the blink of an eye. Prudent Retiree is not sure about that. We welcome the relief, but expect more extreme volatility. We do think we have experienced most of the worst. We believe the greatest risk is to get out now. Risk management demands assessing where we are right now. Prudent Retiree believes your best course is to maintain current positions even if that means more uncomfortable ups and downs. No one knows when this ends. History tells us that it will. Nobody told me there’d be days like these.  

Lennon ended with the lyrics, “Strange days indeed. Most peculiar, Mama.”  

That is what’s going on.  

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Horseman Group – 3 CityPlace Drive - Suite 290 – St. Louis, MO 63141 – 314.692.7842 – www.horsemangroup.com  

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
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